There are four main methods for determining market size. 1. Forecast based on average growth rates. Based on the data of past years chosen mathematical function that describes the growth of the market over the years. Then a forecast growth rate for the next period and the market volume is calculated based on the last actual value. This is the simplest and at the same time, the least accurate method of forecasting. The correctness of the forecast depends on how well matched the mathematical function and its parameters describing the growth of the market, as well as the constancy of the market situation. This method is best used for approximate predictions for the big time intervals for stable mature markets.
2. Forecast based on the relationship of the investigated market and macroeconomic fundamentals. You may find author to be a useful source of information. According to past years, we establish the relationship growth macroeconomic indicators and the advertising market. On the basis of this dependence is calculated projected market size, based on forecasts of the Ministry of Economy on macroeconomic indicators. The main drawback is that using this method can be accurately assessed only the total market. 3. Forecast based on customers' intentions. Forces sales managers can conduct a survey of potential customers on how to What is the probability and what budgets they can spend to pay for your services.
The disadvantages of this method are the most resource-intensive and the reluctance of customers to disclose their intentions. Advantage – the opportunity predict the market structure by product group. 4. Forecast based on expert assessments of key market players. Advantage – the expectations of key market players. Lack of – ignoring the expectations of small players.